2023 NFL Awards predictions DPOY offers great long-shot odds Christian McCaffrey the go-to for OPOY
2023 NFL Awards predictions DPOY offers great long-shot odds Christian McCaffrey the go-to for OPOY
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Thanks to the widespread proliferation of legalized sports betting, we've seen an explosion of available markets in terms of awards. Which is fantastic because the MVP market is, as I noted whilelast week, quite the me s due to longer shots winning the award several times in the last few years.Specifically, the Offensive Player of the Year and Defensive Player of the Year Award markets give us much more viable long shots to land a winner.For years, OPOY was either 1) the MVP runner-up or 2) the unanimous MVP's double dip. But over the last four years, it feels like something's changed in that regard, with voters deciding to reward skill-position players who have ma sive seasons. One thing standing out over the last four years -- all of , , and were in years three through five and went nuclear performance wise.In terms of DPOY, it's usually either 1) , 2) one of the Watt brothers, 3) whoever has the most sacks, 4) a wildly dominant defensive back season or 5) some combo of the first four. But we may have uncovered an interesting trend that's worth exploring in terms of this market. Let's see if we can find some good bets in the various arbitrary ranges I've a signed.Best top bet: (11-1)Just because you're the chalk doesn't mean you can't win something. Golfers like Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler (he belongs to myself and , imagine not following him) routinely win as favorites. CMC is the favorite this year to win an award that is largely arbitrary but the number isn't suppre sed the way MVP odds have become. Instead, CMC is over 10-1 everywhere despite looking like the best offensive weapon in the NFL multiple times over the past five years. He was written off as "injury prone" with the because he got asked to do way too much usage-wise by a coaching staff under an immense amount of pre sure. Take out his first game with the Niners (short week) and he was on pace for nearly a 2,000 yard scrimmage season with 13 touchdowns. He had 63 targets in 10 games with San Francisco last year. If CMC plays 15 games and the Niners QB situation is remotely competent, he's winning this award.Best midrange options: (40-1), (35-1)This number for Ekeler is surprisingly long -- when we're talking about elite, under-appreciated NFL players impacting important with legit playoff chances, Ekeler NFL New York Giants Jersey should be at the top of the list. He's led the league in total touchdowns the last two years while averaging 913 rushing yards and 685 receiving yards over that stretch. What if offense unlocks him as an actually-featured better version of ? Add in the "running backs are getting hosed contractually" narrative and this is an easy look given the talent, the usage and the recent production. Pick Six Newsletter Crafted By The Best NFL Experts Get the day's big stories + fun stuff you love like mock drafts, picks and power rankings. I agree to receive the "Pick Six Newsletter" and marketing communications, updates, special offers (including partner offers), and other information from CBS Sports and the Paramount family of companies. By pre sing sign up, I confirm that I have read and agree to the and acknowledge Paramount's . Please check the opt-in box to acknowledge that you would like to subscribe. Thanks for signing up! Keep an eye on your inbox. Sorry! There was an error proce sing your subscription. If you want to go more upside, Lamb is an easy pick too. Evan Neal Jersey We've seen three wide receivers win this award in the last four years. It's clearly a voter pivot and we should take advantage of it. Lamb would be much lower if the were yeehaw'ing about to sing the ball around this year. Mike McCarthy's comments about his old OC (Kellen Moore, irony is fun!) and the Dallas offensive plan is drawing tons of attention. McCarthy calling plays could end up in Lamb getting alpha status from -- the No. 1 wideouts in Green Bay flourished when McCarthy was calling plays. Lamb already averaged 90+ catches, 1,230 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two seasons. If his usage spikes he's a prime candidate to win here.Best long shot: (60-1)Ridley jokes are too easy/lazy on social media -- this guy went for 1,374 yards in his final full season with the . I don't blame Atlanta for moving on given the gambling stigma, but if the are a high-octane offense, Ridley will be a ma sive factor. The trickle-down effect () of Ridley as the No. 1 in Jacksonville and as the No. 2 will be ma sive for . For Ridley, there's a redemption factor and him becoming a 135+ target guy for Lawrence in a Doug Pederson offense. A usage uptick from his final Falcons season plus a jump for Sunshine puts this firmly in play.Best top bet: (22-1)My next pick would go here, but he's somehow drifted to the point I get to tell you it's time to check out the Pick Six Podcast. Katie Mox, myself and talked about our favorite future bets for the season le s than a fortnight ago (,'scribe, rate and review) and Alex sold me on Reddick at this number and for the local guy to have the most sacks in the NFL. His pre sure numbers are fantastic and if the defensive shift works out how it could, Reddick might be in line for a monster season. The will be very good, near the top of the NFC, and he'll benefit from that PR bump. I have no problem with here either, he Kadarius Toney Jersey 's just 11-1 and I'll take Reddick at double the odds. Best midrange option: Aaron Donald (26-1)This is a bad number. Donald has won this award three times, making him the default go-to if he has a great season and no one else really stands out. I'm not going to linger on this because it's just too obvious -- Donald and (shoutout to my new CBS colleague!) are two of the five greatest defensive players in the history of the NFL and you're getting better odds than to win MVP. The only caveat here is players on bad teams don't win this award: Jason Taylor of the was the last winner under nine wins in 2006. Michael Strahan won the award with the in 2001 prior -- you simply don't win DPOY on a bad team. If you think the will stink, don't bet Donald.Best long shot(s): (50-1)This is where everyone should live on this award right now, because there are legitimate pa s rushers on good teams available. It's hard to discern actual signal because of Watt/Donald, but by and large it's a pa s rusher party for this award outside of (weird year) and (the last remaining vestige of from Ray Lewis and Brian Urlacher winning this award). Follow the sacks and follow the team wins if you want to cash, which makes this pretty easy. Bradley Chubb could go off for the Dolphins in a Vic Fangio defense (and no, you're the biased NC State guy, but at 50-1 it's a no-brainer move). (60-1) isn't worth a heavy investment only because the won't cut him loose early but these awards are soaked in recency bias and Miller could start cooking down the stretch and his price is great for a premier pa s rusher on a 10+ win team. (60-1) is playing for a contract and if he goes off while Washington wins 9-10 games he'll be firmly in the mix. (80-1) is similarly mis-priced for a top-end pa s rusher on a potentially elite team. A DPOY card should really just be Donald and these pa s rushers -- the market hasn't squeezed the value out like MVP.
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